Israelis head to the polls today (Tuesday) in elections for the 26th Knesset, and the political system is bracing for the real battle that will begin after the votes are counted: forming the next government. Three main scenarios are on the table, and the big question isn’t just which party will be largest, but who can assemble a coalition that will win the Knesset’s confidence.
Scenario One: Netanyahu Forms a Right-Wing Government
The first possibility is the continuation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rule through a government based on Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Jewish Power, and Religious Zionism-Identity. In a scenario where these parties together achieve a majority of at least 61 seats, the path to forming a government will be simpler numerically, but will still require negotiations over basic guidelines and division of portfolios.
During the election campaign, Netanyahu emphasized his commitment to forming a right-wing government and continuing judicial reform. Among the issues that will be central to possible negotiations are the draft law, continued policy in Judea and Samaria, relations between the government and the judicial system, and division of senior portfolios.
Another possibility is adding a party not counted among the outgoing coalition bloc, provided it agrees to the basic guidelines of the new government. However, such a move would also depend on commitments made during the campaign and the willingness of potential partners to sit together.
Scenario Two: An Opposition-Led Government
The second possibility is forming a government led by one of the opposition parties, primarily Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar or Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad. Such a government might be based on several parties from the outgoing opposition, but the question of the majority needed to form it is more complex.
One scenario discussed during the election campaign is a government that would include Yashar, Beyachad, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beiteinu, while attempting to add Ra’am or rely on external support from the Joint List. But this possibility raises significant controversies, partly due to ideological gaps between the parties and different positions regarding partnership with the Arab parties.
The question of who would lead the government could also become an obstacle. Eisenkot and Bennett both seek to lead the camp, and alongside them additional players will need to decide if they’re willing to support one of them and under what conditions.
Scenario Three: Elections Again?
The third scenario is one the political system already knows well from the crisis years of 2019-2022: neither bloc succeeds in forming a government, and the country is dragged into deadlock.
Such a situation could occur if small parties don’t pass the electoral threshold, if neither camp succeeds in assembling a majority, or if mutual boycotts between party leaders prevent agreements even after the seats are divided.
After the elections, faction representatives will come to President Isaac Herzog and recommend the candidate they believe should form the government. The president will assign the task to the Knesset member he estimates has the highest chance of succeeding. If attempts to form a government fail, the constitutional track may open that would ultimately lead to another election.
Either way, the current election campaign may be decided not only by the number of votes each party receives, but also by party leaders’ willingness to sit side by side the day after.