While renewed confrontation with the United States remains on the table, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards appear to be changing course. Internal debate within the terror organization’s leadership has led to identifying new targets to pressure the Americans to agree—even as senior officials haven’t ruled out military action in the Strait of Hormuz.
There’s a split within the Revolutionary Guards leadership, no secret there, and as a result, heavy pressure is being applied to take action in the Strait of Hormuz. One camp is specifically pushing to ramp up pressure on all vessels passing through, effectively creating “facts on the ground.” The second camp—according to their approach—doesn’t want to take escalatory military steps. Instead, they prefer to let media pressure on Trump push him to agree to a deal that benefits the Iranians.
Still, all sides agree that pressure must be applied to regional countries, alongside threats, to make them understand that the United States can’t help them—thereby forcing them to push for an agreement. The expectation is to see pressure and threats directed at these countries in the coming days, with the Revolutionary Guards wanting to ask the Houthis to continue applying heavy pressure on Saudi Arabia.
Finally, what’s driving the Revolutionary Guards now, and what sits at the top of their priorities, is showing they want to accumulate power. So people understand it’s not worth taking to the streets to protest.