For months, Channel 14 pollster Shlomo Filber stood nearly alone against most of Israel’s polling institutes. While competing channels gave the right-wing bloc around 50 seats, Channel 14’s surveys painted a completely different picture time and again—pointing to a much larger bloc.
The unusual gaps made Filber a constant target for criticism and mockery from journalists, commentators and social media users. But as the polls closed and real results started flowing in, even his critics were forced to admit: Filber identified the trend long before everyone else.
In Channel 14’s exit poll released when voting ended, Filber gave the right-wing bloc 60 seats, compared to just 50 in some competing exit polls. According to the latest update, after counting about 60.2% of votes, the current coalition stands at 56 seats—far from the scenarios presented throughout the campaign by most polling institutes.
1+The trend is also visible at the party level: Likud stands at 28 seats in the interim results, Yashar party at 21, Yachad at 11 and the Democrats at eight. Though vote counting isn’t finished and the picture could still change, it’s already clear that predictions of a complete collapse of the right-wing bloc didn’t materialize.
Recognition of Filber’s achievement came even from media figures not identified with Channel 14. Journalist Itamar Kahan, former editor of TheMarker, wrote briefly: “Israel Prize for Communications to Shlomo Filber.” Yossi Elituv, editor of Mishpacha newspaper, also admitted and heaped praise on the pollster: “We all need to apologize to Momo Filber. A well-oiled machine of one man. He was closest to reality.”
1+Channel 12 correspondent Amit Segal also addressed the unusual gap between predictions and results, writing: “We must admit this is Yom Kippur for most pollsters. There’s no statistical way to explain a six-seat advantage for the opposition—that flipped within four days.”
Israel Hayom correspondent Bini Ashkenazi pointed to the failure of most other pollsters and demanded they provide answers: “We need to talk about the elephant in the room. Most polls didn’t predict what we’re seeing right now, we need an explanation here.” Even journalist Attila Somfalvi joined the wave of praise and wrote: “Let’s hope all the pollsters in Israel—all of them—are picking up the phone this morning to Momo Filber for a personal and intimate conversation.”