Could a party no one expected to fall below the electoral threshold find itself out of the Knesset? Pollster Shlomo Filber, who oversees Channel 14’s exit poll, addressed the scenario Tuesday evening in an interview with Maggie Tabibi—one that could reshape the political map amid high turnout rates recorded across the country.
Filber, speaking from Channel 14’s secure polling facility, explained that rising turnout is expected to hit smaller parties especially hard. As the number of voters grows, so does the number of votes needed to cross the threshold, and parties relying on a fixed voter base could be hurt.
“In principle, those immediately hurt by an event like this—high turnout—are the small parties,” Filber explained. “By nature they have some fixed base, and the lower the turnout, the more they can realize themselves and bring their strength to bear. As turnout grows, it means the smaller, more sectoral parties will be hurt.”
But the most significant statement came when Filber addressed the possibility that rising turnout could lead to a surprise not accounted for in recent polls. “This could very much affect the final composition of each bloc and the composition of the parties, and maybe even a situation we haven’t dreamed of in recent weeks—some party falling below the threshold,” he said.
Filber made clear the danger to small parties isn’t limited to one political camp. “It’s on both sides,” he emphasized, explaining that the polling team is tracking throughout the day how turnout rates affect seat distribution. He didn’t name a specific party or reveal data collected in the poll itself.