Sources I’ve spoken with say initial understandings are taking shape regarding the future of the Gaza Strip in recent days. The understandings have not been signed, have not been finalized, and it’s unclear whether they will actually ripen into implementation.
1+According to sources I’ve spoken with in recent days and weeks, one option now on the table is that Hamas would begin handing over heavy and light weapons and tunnel locations within roughly two weeks. That said, this is an extremely sensitive stage of the contacts, and significant question marks remain around the very feasibility of the move, how it would be executed, and the ability to ensure Hamas actually honors its commitments.
The contacts are being conducted, according to sources, around a broader framework that includes gradual demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, including the issues of light weapons, heavy weapons, and tunnel infrastructure. At the same time, the issue of ending Hamas’s governing involvement in the Strip is also being examined, and gaps between the sides could still affect the framework’s progress.
1+According to the understandings, if the framework does advance, it’s expected to be based on a phased mechanism of reciprocal steps, so that each step by Israel would be conditional on a step by Hamas. Sources emphasize that the arrangement is not supposed to be based on trust in the terror organization, but rather on monitoring, enforcement, and control mechanisms that are still being formulated.
Under the roadmap being examined, Hamas is supposed to cease military activity, and subsequently technical mechanisms would be closed that would enable the start of a full and complete demilitarization process. However, as noted, there is no signed agreement at this stage, and no certainty that the timelines being discussed will actually materialize.
Sources I’ve spoken with in recent days and hours assess that the very possibility that Hamas would begin handing over weapons within a short timeframe is a very significant positive development.
Bottom line: understandings are emerging that could lead to Hamas beginning to hand over weapons within roughly two weeks, but at this stage it’s only a possibility. Until a formal agreement is signed and until actual implementation begins on the ground, the move should be treated with great caution.