Prominent political analyst and pollster Shlomo Filber is doubling down on his definitive forecast ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections, maintaining that the right-wing bloc is on track to secure a decisive majority of 63 to 64 mandates. Speaking in a radio interview, Filber made clear that despite fluid variables around voter turnout and vote dispersion across the political map, his underlying projection for the outcome remains unchanged.
1+“I am not backing down from the assessment that in the end, it will conclude with 63 to 64 seats,” Filber stated. Nevertheless, he noted that several critical variables could still influence final margins, most notably voter participation rates within the Arab and Haredi communities. “Right now there are two major dynamics. First, we are treating turnout with caution because you cannot know what the participation rate will be among Arab voters. And until two days ago, you also didn’t know what the turnout would look like among the Haredim,” he remarked.
However, according to Filber, one of the most volatile factors shaping the parliamentary map is the number of votes captured by parties hovering precariously near the 3.25% electoral threshold. He argued that two specific parties currently caught in that threshold trap are effectively burning a substantial number of mandates for both sides, with the right-wing bloc sustaining the heavier damage. “The third and most significant factor is that there are currently two parties sitting in the middle; right now they are burning between six and seven mandates across both camps, but they are burning more mandates for the right than for the left,” he explained.
1+This dynamic means that votes cast for factions that ultimately fail to cross the statutory threshold will simply be discarded and will not translate into parliamentary representation. According to Filber’s analysis, while this threshold attrition damages both political blocs, it disproportionately penalizes the right-wing camp—a dynamic that could prove acutely sensitive in the broader battle for Knesset control.
Yet, despite persistent questions regarding sectoral turnout and the electoral viability of marginal factions, Filber remains wedded to an unambiguous outcome: when the final ballots are counted, he projects that the right-wing bloc will cross the finish line with 63 to 64 mandates, securing a firm governing parliamentary majority.