Israel assesses that Iran has ramped up pressure in recent days on the terror group Hezbollah to escalate the situation with Israel and carry out significant terror operations—including attempts to kidnap IDF soldiers. According to the assessment, Tehran wants to trigger an escalation on the northern border through the Iranian-backed organization.
1+According to the Israeli assessment, Hezbollah is currently preparing for the possibility of war with Israel, and as part of that preparation is examining the option of carrying out the kind of terror operations Iran is pushing for. However, the terror group has not yet been convinced that now is the right time to launch a significant escalation.
The gap between the Iranian position and Hezbollah’s centers on the question of timing. While Tehran is pressuring for immediate action, Hezbollah has not yet decided, according to the assessment, to execute these moves now.
1+The current assessment comes amid tensions on the northern border and the confrontation between Israel and the Iranian axis. Last month, Iran reportedly sent a warning to the United States against a large-scale attack following the possibility that Israel would take control of the Ali Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The IDF later completed the destruction of Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure on the ridge, which had been built over years with Iranian funding and planning.
Israel’s security establishment classifies Iran as the primary combat arena, with Lebanon defined as a secondary arena. That same situation assessment warned that the connection between Iran and the terror organizations it backs could lead to rapid escalation on multiple fronts simultaneously. Now, in light of the new assessment about Iranian pressure on Hezbollah, the question of when the organization will choose to act takes on added significance.