Spanish media published an aggregation of recent national polls on Sunday, showing a decisive advantage for the right-wing bloc. According to 92% of the simulation models analyzed across the surveys, the Popular Party (PP) and Vox combined exceed 50% of the vote and clear the 175-seat absolute majority threshold in Spain’s Congress of Deputies—with one poll projecting the bloc surpassing 200 seats. This marks a significant turnaround from the previous government led by Pedro Sánchez, which had to rely on external parliamentary support to form.
Spanish analysts point to a straightforward structural cause that closely mirrors Israeli electoral dynamics: the leftist factions Sumar-IU and Podemos decided to run separately, burning tens of thousands of votes that will fail to translate into parliamentary seats. Reports indicate that even under a distant hypothetical scenario in which all factions to the left of the ruling PSOE managed to form a unified front, the right-wing bloc would still maintain around 193 seats.
A joint ticket between Vox and another right-wing party could reclaim surplus votes currently wasted under fragmented candidacies, giving the bloc roughly three additional seats. Such a tactical consolidation would lift PP and Vox to about 182 seats and cement the right’s margin—allaying conservative fears of a unified left comeback, similar to the maneuvers in 2023 that kept Sánchez in power. Nevertheless, analysts emphasize that none of these potential alliances have been finalized, and several have not even been formally proposed.