Amid recent reports of Israeli strikes near Damascus and efforts to thwart Turkish weapons transfers into Syria, Middle East expert and senior researcher Yoni Ben Menachem is warning that Israel faces a powerful new strategic threat. In an interview with C14 on Friday morning, Ben Menachem described Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as the “new Iran,” warning that without clear red lines from the United States, Israel could find itself sliding into a direct military confrontation with Turkey on Syrian soil.
2+According to Ben Menachem, Turkey’s attempt to transfer air-defense systems and weapons to an airfield in Syria is only the tip of the iceberg of a much broader plan. “We have to remember that Turkey is headed by a megalomaniac president who sees himself as the new sultan, the new caliph,” Ben Menachem said. “He talks about conquering Jerusalem, he wants to reach the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and he heads a radical Sunni axis that is trying to replace the Iranian axis.”
Ben Menachem also described what he views as the depth of Turkish involvement in Syria’s leadership, arguing that key figures in the government are effectively proxies of Ankara. “Abu Mohammed al-Julani, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is a Turkish agent. They brought him to power in Syria,” he said. According to Ben Menachem, Turkey’s goal is to establish a military presence that would alter the regional balance of power, while benefiting from partial backing from the U.S. administration.
2+Ben Menachem also analyzed how Israel’s election results could affect the northern arena. “If it is a left-wing government, that will play into their hands, because we are hearing statements that there is no need for buffer zones—not in Syria, not in Lebanon and not in the Gaza Strip. It will be easier for them to move closer to Israel’s border,” he said.
By contrast, he predicted that a right-wing victory could lead to an unavoidable confrontation. “If the right-wing government wins, we are definitely expected to face a confrontation with the Turks on Syrian soil that could even deteriorate into a military conflict, because they will not raise the white flag and they want to take control of Syria,” Ben Menachem warned.
2+While attention is increasingly focused on Turkey, Ben Menachem stressed that the Iranian threat has not disappeared, but is instead changing form under what he described as a deceptive period of relative calm. Despite President Donald Trump’s statements that Iran is “begging for a deal,” Ben Menachem remains skeptical. “The Iranians will not raise the white flag. I estimate that they are using this relative calm to rearm—to produce ballistic missiles and drones,” he said.
Ben Menachem further predicted that Tehran could be preparing a major offensive move ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. “They will surprise Trump. They will initiate an escalating offensive move, attack the Gulf states and American bases with the aim of spilling American blood in order to hurt Trump in the elections,” he warned.
Ben Menachem concluded by calling for a strategic shift in dealing with Iran. While economic pressure is important, he argued, it is insufficient to topple a dictatorship with powerful mechanisms of repression. “It is an important move, but a slow one. You cannot bring down a regime that has strong mechanisms of repression if you do not take ground action, and Trump does not want to reach Tehran,” he said.