While diplomatic contacts and discussions about implementing a settlement framework with Lebanon continue on the northern front, Middle East expert and researcher Yoni Ben Menachem presented a pessimistic assessment today (Wednesday) and is demanding close, strict oversight of Lebanese army operations on the ground. In an interview on the “Israel This Morning” program hosted by Tal Meir, Ben Menachem explained why Lebanon’s government continues to present a false front, addressed the complex relationship with the American administration, and warned of catastrophic consequences from regional civilian nuclear deals.
2+“I’m not very impressed by this. Lebanon is getting money from the Americans and so on, and the question is what will happen on the ground? That’s what matters—will the Lebanese army disarm Hezbollah? I don’t think that will happen,” Ben Menachem opened, referring to contacts surrounding the settlement of southern Lebanon activity.
According to him, what we’re seeing now is just the beginning of the American pilot program in the region. “Hezbollah has been using a very sophisticated strategy for several days now. They’re attacking the Lebanese army’s withdrawal, its agreement with Israel, and the direct contacts, but they’re not saying one bad word, not even one, about the Lebanese army. They’re trying to create a buffer between the Lebanese army and the Lebanese government.”
2+Ben Menachem emphasized that the Lebanese army commander is considered a Hezbollah supporter, and that the Shiite percentage within the Lebanese army ranks is very high. “They’re counting on being able to coordinate with the Lebanese army on the ground to create some illusion that the American plan is advancing, while in practice the Lebanese army won’t do anything serious against them. That’s why it’s very important to see how this progresses, and there must be oversight here by the IDF and by the Americans after every operation the Lebanese army conducts on the ground, to see if they’re really acting against Hezbollah.”
The Middle East expert recalled that “three months ago the Lebanese army started the oversight mechanism, the upgraded oversight committee, both with American funding and Israeli participation, supposedly because it had dismantled all of Hezbollah’s infrastructure in Lebanon. And then when IDF forces captured the territory, we saw what they discovered, we saw the firepower in Ayta ash-Shab, on Salitar Street and in other places. So Lebanon is a fraud, the Lebanese government lies, despite all this show it’s putting on, and everything happening on the ground should be examined very carefully. I have serious doubts whether Hezbollah will really be disarmed.”
2+Finally, Ben Menachem addressed reports of regional political deals: “This Wall Street Journal report is accurate, and I haven’t seen the agreement. It’s a journalistic report. This is a very dangerous move Trump is making, and let me tell you why. Because this matter of Saudi civilian nuclear capability should have been part of the normalization agreement with Israel. It was one of the conditions the Biden administration set for Saudi Arabia.
“Now Trump is giving it to them as a gift without any normalization with Saudi Arabia. And the next stage will be demands from Turkey and from Egypt—they’ll also want a nuclear reactor with uranium enrichment, and this will escalate the arms race in the Middle East. I think this is a very dangerous move, if we’re relying only on this journalistic report. We need to see exactly what’s written in the agreement.”