Israel’s security establishment believes the coming days could prove decisive in the regional arena. A senior security official told Channel 14 Tuesday evening that “we are facing critical days. Iran and the United States are deliberating their next steps. The system is at maximum alert for any development, and we estimate there’s about a 50% chance of war in the near term.”
According to the official, all security agencies are on high alert and conducting ongoing situation assessments while preparing responses to a range of possible scenarios. Israel is closely monitoring decisions that may be made in the coming days in Tehran and Washington, understanding that any policy shift by either side could lead to rapid escalation.
The Israeli assessment comes hours after President Donald Trump significantly sharpened his messaging toward Iran and made clear the United States has no intention of stopping military pressure. Referring to Mount Makhoush, Trump declared: “We will hit that site without a doubt. We will hit hard at any new site,” and later emphasized for the second time recently: “Without a doubt we will attack Mount Makhoush.”
Trump also made clear that from his perspective, the campaign against Iran is far from over. “If we leave the fight with Iran now it will take them 20 to 25 years to recover. We are absolutely not done with the work, we are not ready to leave at this stage,” he said, adding that “Iran hasn’t seen anything yet. We’ve been nice until now.”
Addressing diplomatic contacts, the American president said Washington has no intention of returning to the negotiating table as long as Iran is not prepared to hold serious talks. “Until the Iranians are ready to discuss seriously we have no intention whatsoever of meeting with them,” he said, adding that “Iran had all the opportunities in the world to hold negotiations.”
During his meeting with Lebanon’s president at the White House, Trump also addressed the Lebanese arena and declared there are “well-built plans” for dealing with Hezbollah’s dismantlement. He also hinted that additional countries are expected to join the Abraham Accords soon, and said Lebanon “has a very important place” in the framework of regional developments.
Meanwhile, the United States and Israel continue monitoring what’s happening at Mount Makhoush, a new underground facility carved south of Natanz that is raising concerns in the West. According to reports and satellite analysis, work continues at the complex and it is being built as a particularly fortified system. Earlier today it was reported that Israel estimates centrifuges and even uranium have been transferred to the facility.
Against the backdrop of these developments, Israel’s security establishment emphasizes that alertness is at its peak, and that decisions to be made in the coming days in the United States and Iran could directly affect regional stability and the possibility of broad escalation.