A new poll sparking controversy in Israel’s political system shows Gadi Eisenkot leading Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by one mandate for the first time, alongside a strengthening trend for the opposition bloc. But in an interview on the “Israel This Morning” program hosted by Tal Meir, political analyst Shlomo Filber offered a different analysis—explaining why gaps shown in various polls don’t necessarily indicate deep shifts in the electorate, but rather reflect a different internal dynamic.
Against the backdrop of recent publications pointing to changes in the mandate map, Filber appeared Thursday on “Israel This Morning” and noted that discussion of poll results must be done carefully and precisely. The data emerging from his in-depth analysis point to a completely different trend: consistent strengthening of Likud in the past two weeks, alongside a consistent decline in Benny Gantz’s power.
1+During the interview, Filber addressed Likud’s “lost mandates”: “There are 8 mandates of Likudniks we’ve been talking about for a year now, sitting with Bennett. If you move them to their natural bloc—Likud should be at 30 plus.” Filber added forcefully, “There are 1.2 million Likud voters. Someone decided that 400,000 of them switched blocs. No one can say who they are, where they are, why we don’t hear them in the media.”
Regarding the political situation, Filber emphasized: “In the past year and a half, there hasn’t been any movement between the blocs. The whole debate is about what happened somewhere before the protests, but in the past year, everyone agrees the right-wing bloc has remained stable.” On the small and new parties that tried to break into the map, Filber said: “None of them pass the electoral threshold, and none of them are even close—they haven’t even reached half the mandates needed.”
1+On the possibility of a broad national unity government, Filber noted that Netanyahu presents an open line: “He comes and says ‘I’m not boycotting anyone, I’m inviting to my government anyone who wants to join based on basic principles.'” By contrast, Filber argues the opposition bloc refuses this framework: “In the opposition bloc, they’re playing an all-or-nothing game. They’ll try to maintain their bloc without any right-wing party.”