Israelis have become accustomed to thinking about rounds of fighting and being disappointed, but a look at the campaign against the murderous terrorist organization Hezbollah and in Gaza reveals a new strategic approach: Israel is moving away from a “rounds doctrine,” in which short periods of fighting are followed by unstable quiet that ultimately resets the situation, and toward a “phased doctrine.”
Under this approach, even when international or American pressure leads to temporary pauses or ceasefire arrangements, Israel’s operational framework is designed not to revert to previous positions. Instead, each stage of activity serves as a foundation for the next phase of operations.
In this model, the endpoint of one stage becomes the starting point for the next. Diplomatic pauses are viewed as opportunities for reorganization, force buildup, and the strengthening of international legitimacy. When hostilities resume, the IDF continues from the same operational points, expanding and deepening its areas of control and influence, particularly in southern Lebanon.
The Defense Ministry and security establishment are driving structural changes in southern Lebanon, including significant damage to Hezbollah infrastructure and the weakening of forward positions that had previously been embedded within civilian areas. This has reportedly contributed to large-scale displacement in parts of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah will no longer be “the strongest terror army in the world”; even if it maintains certain harassment capabilities with Iranian encouragement, it is experiencing a collapse of its command structure, heavy casualties, and an unprecedented low in internal legitimacy within Lebanon.
Even if President Donald Trump stops us again, given Steve Witkoff’s fantasies, this trend will not last long. Israel will return to the “steps theory” that is expected to continue to gradually but consistently erode Hezbollah’s assets, until the strategic threat to northern Israel is significantly neutralized. This process will continue until the threat is completely removed, and in the meantime the opposition will keep mocking.