Close associates of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu admit that the chances of approving the conscription law in the current term are zero. Following an announcement last night by Rabbi Dov Lando, President of Moetzes Gedolei Hatorah, that members of his faction do not support advancing the bill before elections. Netanyahu waged a fierce battle yesterday trying to salvage the bill and bring it to a vote anyway, but this morning, Netanyahu’s people informed Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Boaz Bismuth that the bill has effectively been blocked for good and will not pass in the current Knesset.
Even though the conscription law will not pass, the Prime Minister has been waging a battle with various elements in the political system over the date of the elections. While in the Knesset, since the conscription law failed to pass, there has been a solid majority in favor of holding the elections in September, Netanyahu is still trying to postpone the date and bring about the election being set for the end of October, instead of its original date of October 27 or a week earlier, on the 20th.
It’s still unclear whether Netanyahu will succeed in these efforts, since the Haredi factions already announced last week, when they supported the bill to dissolve the Knesset in a preliminary reading, that if the conscription bill doesn’t pass within a reasonable timeframe, they will act to bring down the government and move elections to the earliest possible date.
This is regardless of the basic position of Shas, which announced that its preferred election date is early September, due to its proximity to the High Holidays, irrespective of whether the conscription bill passes or not.
For elections to be held on September 1, the Knesset Committee must convene immediately, and the Knesset plenum needs to approve the bill in three readings by Monday of next week, since the law stipulates that an election date cannot be set less than three months—90 days—from the day of dissolution. Monday will be June 1, exactly three months before September 1.
The next possible dates, taking the Hebrew calendar into account, are September 8 and 15. This gives the Knesset an additional week or two to pass the dissolution bill, but sources in right-wing factions expressed concern that the proximity of these dates to Rosh Hashanah could severely damage the ability of hundreds of thousands of people traveling to Uman, to the grave of Rabbi Nachman of Breslov, to participate in the elections. These are votes that mostly go to the Haredi parties and right-wing bloc parties.